Bond Protection Portfolios

Most bond investors know that rising interest rates can cause huge losses in bond portfolios, regardless of whether we are talking individual bonds or bond funds. With bond prices still trying to recover from shocking declines last summer and this spring, our new Bond Protection portfolio, first offered in May, is attracting interest from high-net-worth investors. In this strategy we will apply hedging techniques striving to substantially cushion bond prices from the risk of rising interest rates. The neat thing about this strategy is that clients can continue to hold their bonds and collect interest.

Bond investors normally invest in bonds due to their relative safety compared to stocks. But my calculations show that a 20 year bond will loose over 20% of its value if interest rates go up 2%. Longer bonds will lose even more. If you recall how high interest rates went in the early 1980’s (into the teens) you can see why I say the potential for loss is huge.

If you have large bond holdings call for an appointment to see if our Bond Protection portfolios might help you reduce the risk of holding your bonds in this uncertain environment. And if you have friends who invest in bonds, tell them too, please.

Core and Satellite-Multi Manager Portfolios

Hepburn Capital participates in a group of several hundred money managers. which includes many of America’s best “boutique” investment managers. We now have the technology in place to have several managers participate in managing a single account. This allows us to not only bring in some of the best talent around to manage your money, but to change the lineup of managers depending upon the markets, too. We expect Hedge Fund type performance from these accounts but without all the disadvantages of Hedge Funds.

We currently have 50% of the money in these accounts with two “bear market managers” – ones who have shown an ability to make money in down markets, – 25% with a growth manager, and 25% which we are managing in-house.

These two portfolios have higher minimums that some of our earlier programs, so they aren’t for everyone. Please call for an appointment if you are interested. 928-778-4000.

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Summer Seminar Schedule

This month we have more educational seminars to offer than ever before. Please RSVP by calling the office at 717-0007 to save your seats.

Friday August 13th from 2:00—3:00 p.m.@ the Prescott Public Library
“Protecting Yourself and Your Family from Identity Theft”

Det. Steve Skurja from the Prescott Police department will present this timely topic. Join us to find out about the latest scams and how to avoid them.

Wed, Aug. 25th at 2:00 and Sat, Aug 28th at 10:00 at Springhill Suites in Prescott.
Alternative Investments for High Net Worth Families

Discover how to protect the value of your bonds or bond funds in a rising interest rate market. Also learn how to get hedge fund benefits without all the disadvantages of hedge funds.

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The Election Hangs on Consumer Sentiment?

“The election hangs on consumer sentiment”. That’s the claim of the Conference Board, which says incumbent parties have won the popular vote (but in Al Gore’s case not the White House) every time its Consumer Confidence Index was at or above 100 on election day during the past eight elections. Challengers have won the three times the Index was below that level. Source: Forbes August 16 issue. Latest CFI reading: 101.9, down from 140 in 2000. Three more readings before the election, to be released on August 24, September 28, and October 26. Stay tuned!

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IPO’s still doing investors harm!

A few years ago I saw a report that showed the devastating results for investors who bought initial public offerings (IPOs). Almost all were down hugely a year later, while the investment banks and underwriters made similarly large multi-million dollar fees for bringing them public.

But some of that could be blamed on the 2000-2002 bear market. So how have the IPOs of the last 12 months fared? Of the 25 tech companies that went public with initial public offerings in the last 12 months, only four are still higher than their first public trade price. The five worst, in spite of initial pops up, are now down an average of 64%. (Source Investment Management Research.)

And still investors clamor to get in on IPOs, and complain to their brokers when they can’t get part of the initial allocation. Makes me wonder how those who are currently so excited about the upcoming Google IPO will feel about it a year from now.

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We’re Looking . . .

With the retirement of Sheila DeWoskin earlier this year, we have an office open for an ambitious investment advisor. If you know of an experienced advisor who might be interested in working for a progressive growing firm, please have them call me at 717-0007. Thanks.

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Chicago was Great!

Last month I was in Chicago for a conference at the Drake Hotel. (they sure don’t build them like that any more!) and got to spend time on the Near North Side. Growing up on the South Side and leaving for the Army in 1971, I was impressed with just how nice Chicago has become.

North Michigan Avenue has to be the best shopping east of New York, Navy pier is a big theme park, the Water Tower area is certainly unique. There are great beaches and lots to do, even if the Cubbies aren’t in town!

At a famous blues club, the drummer didn’t show, so they drafted my 14 year old son, Matt, from the audience to open the set. He played like he’d done it forever according to his proud papa.

If you haven’t been to Chicago in a while you might want to consider it. It’s great fun!

Will Hepburn is a private investment manager who specializes in active investment strategies. He owns the Prescott Center for Adaptive Market Strategies, and is President of Hepburn Capital Management, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor. He may be reached at, 2069 Willow Creek Road, Prescott, AZ 86301, or by calling (928) 778-4000 or emailing Will@HepburnCapital.com.

Copyright 2004. Permission to copy granted given the above attribution is included. The information contained in this newsletter is derived from sources believed to be accurate. You should discuss any legal, tax, or financial matters with the appropriate professional. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for purchase or sale or any security.