July 1, 2020 Ready for a Double-Dip Recession? That our economy is in a recession caused by stay-at-home orders is no surprise, but the recession was formally declared for the first time last week by some government group. The recession is not directly caused by the virus, but more due to the avoidance of face-to-face contact required to produce many goods and provide services, once people
June 2, 2020 Waiting for the Next Shoe to Drop It is difficult to address issues in the context of “getting back to normal” in the midst of a never-seen-before pandemic like we are experiencing. Yet that is what most of us yearn for, to get back to normal. The financial markets have breathed a collective sigh of relief as well, as lockdown restrictions have been
April 30, 2020 Flattening the Curve or the Economy? The economic shutdown is intended to slow the spread of Covid-19 and flatten the rising curve on the graphs of Covid-19 cases, but it is also flattening our economy. The financial crisis in 2008 did not destroy industries, but the current economic shutdowns are going to do much more damage to our economy. This makes it a
March 31, 2020 The Month That Changed Everything I think the virus going around has something in common with the Harry Potter villain, Lord Voldemort, who was “He Who Shall Not be Named” in those books. Every week or two the virus gets a new name. First Wuhan, then Coronavirus, then Covid-19, and now SARS-CoV-2. I wish they would pick a name and stick with it!
March 3, 2020 A Black Swan Named COVID-19 A few hundred years ago, Europeans could not imagine a swan being any other color than white, because they had never seen a black swan until explorers returned from Australia with one. A black swan event is something no one can envision until it happens, sort of like the Fukushima nuclear accident, the 9/11 attacks on the World