My Trade Secret

Posted on July 17, 2007

How much risk can you afford? Nine out of ten investors, when asked how much risk they are willing to take respond with one version or another of “as little as possible”. That is the way I think, and I’m guessing you think that way too. Let’s face it, losing money is unpleasant. This is why risk avoidance is my number 1 priority in managing

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August 2004: New Portfolios

Posted on December 23, 2005

Bond Protection Portfolios Most bond investors know that rising interest rates can cause huge losses in bond portfolios, regardless of whether we are talking individual bonds or bond funds. With bond prices still trying to recover from shocking declines last summer and this spring, our new Bond Protection portfolio, first offered in May, is attracting interest from high-net-worth investors. In this strategy we will apply hedging

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The Great Tug of War: Inflation?

Posted on December 23, 2005

The Great Tug of War Since interest rates began to rise in February, everyone, at least everyone who follows the markets, thinks that inflation is the next big thing. It may be. But, hey, I’m a contrarian. When I notice “everyone” doing the same thing it makes me think that something else is likely to happen. Last month I wrote about both deflation and inflation, and

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Deflation: A Primer (Mar 04)

Posted on December 23, 2005

by Will Hepburn Deflation: a Primer Econ 101 says inflation is when too may dollars chase too few goods and prices go up. Deflation, on the other hand, is when too many goods chase too few dollars and prices go down. Right now the world has excess factories producing the “too many goods” and this is the beginning of deflation. Since we haven’t had deflation since

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February 2005: China

Posted on December 23, 2005

by Will Hepburn China CHINA — It is very much a present influence. Wait until you see to what extent China is going to influence our future. (Thanks to Richard Russell, of Dow Theory Letters) China’s population is five times that of the U.S. China has one of the world’s oldest civilizations with a long history of innovation. The Chinese invented gunpowder, and paper money. Although

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