Deflation: A Primer (Mar 04)

Posted on December 23, 2005

by Will Hepburn Deflation: a Primer Econ 101 says inflation is when too may dollars chase too few goods and prices go up. Deflation, on the other hand, is when too many goods chase too few dollars and prices go down. Right now the world has excess factories producing the “too many goods” and this is the beginning of deflation. Since we haven’t had deflation since

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Time and Risk (11/05)

Posted on November 15, 2005

Does Time Cut the Risk of Owning Stocks? “No,” Says a Nobel-Winning Economist. While there is a kernel of truth in the argument that a longer holding period increases your odds of making a profit, like many Wall Street myths, the devil is in the details. Friend Roger Schreiner, founder of Select Advisers, makes a compelling argument that the risk of ruin increases the longer you

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Who May Get Hurt the Most?

Posted on August 10, 2003 by Will Hepburn

Who May Get Hurt the Most? A recent item about interest rates on the news really got to me. The reporter said something to the effect of “. . . and rising interest rates may hurt homeowners.” I can’t tell you how many news articles and statements by experts I disagree with after I really think about them. They often get things exactly backwards. This is

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Deflation in the Air?

Posted on February 15, 2003

Deflation in the air? I first talked about the potential for deflation in 1998, in connection with my economic take on Y2K, and its potential for disruption of the markets. As time goes on, more and more of the economic ramifications I predicted 5 years ago have indeed happened. Large stock market decline, bonds performing strongly, and gold being something to avoid for several years (gold

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